Informing Government Border Policy with Migration Trend Analysis

Challenge

Our client - a government organisation - observed unexpected fluctuations in asylum applications from several regions over recent years. 

To respond effectively, they needed a clearer understanding of the underlying causes, including both the domestic "push" factors leading individuals to leave their home countries, and the international "pull" factors drawing them to the destination country. 

With this insight, the team could better inform decision makers on future migration policy changes and prepare for potential increases in applications.

Solution

Butterfly Data gathered and assessed a wide range of trusted open-source datasets, including asylum applications, conflict indices, fragility scores, economic indicators, census data, and international visa policy changes. These datasets were processed and modelled using Snowflake, and we also applied regression modelling techniques to forecast application volumes for 2025.

The cleaned and structured data was then visualised through an interactive Power BI dashboard, providing users with the ability to explore trends over time, clearly identify historical tendencies and answer emerging questions and predict future movements.

All data sources were documented in a comprehensive data dictionary, and wherever possible, APIs were noted as an option to automate future data updates, ensuring the dashboard remains dynamic and scalable within the client’s environment. 

Impact

We delivered a proof-of-concept dashboard that consolidated all key datasets, giving the client the ability to compare multiple countries or focus on a single nation’s emigration profile. 

The final dashboard page presented predictions for 2025 applications based on historical trends and region specific indicators.

By offering clear visualisations and interactive reports, the tool helped identify patterns in asylum applications and potential future trends. These insights equip the client with a foundation to advise decision makers on relevant policy.